Steve Romick

Wisdom from Steve Romick: Part 3

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Continuation of content extracted from an interview with Steve Romick of First Pacific Advisors (Newsletter Fall 2010) published by Columbia Business School. Please see Part 1 for more details on this series.  

Creativity, Team Management

G&D: We also noticed that you recently hired Elizabeth Douglass, a former business journalist with the LA Times, which we found interesting – can you talk about that decision?

SR: We are trying to do due diligence in a deeper way and get information that may not be easily accessible. For example, with Aon, Elizabeth will help us track down people who used to work for Aon and get their phone numbers…So, she is an investigative journalist for us, a data synthesizer, research librarian and just a great resource to have.”

During my tenure at the multi-billion family office, my colleagues and I used to joke about Manager Bingo. Instead of numbers, on a bingo card, we’d write certain buzz words – “private equity approach to public market investing,” “long-term focus,” “margin of safety,” “bottom-up stock selection with top-down macro overlay” etc. – you get the idea. In meetings, each time a manager mentioned one of these buzz words/concepts, we’d check off a box. Blackouts were rare, though not impossible, depending on the manager.

But I digress. In the marketing materials of most funds, there’s usually a paragraph or sentence dedicated to “proprietary diligence methodology” or something to that effect. Most never really have anything close to “proprietary” – just the usual team of analysts running models, following earnings, and setting up expert network calls with the same experts as the competition.

Here, Steve Romick describes an interesting approach: a “research librarian” and detective to organize and track down new resources that others on Wall Street have not previously tapped, thus potentially uncovering fresh information and perspective. This is not the first time I’ve heard of investment management firms hiring journalists, but the practice is definitely not commonplace. Kudos on creativity and establishing competitive advantage!

 

Benchmark, Hurdle Rate

“Beating the market is not our goal. Our goal is to provide, over the long term, equity-like returns with less risk than the stock market. We have beaten the market, but that‘s incidental. We don‘t have this monkey on our back to outperform every month, quarter, and year. If we think the market is going to return 9% and we can buy a high-yield bond that’s yielding 11.5% and we’re confident that the principal will be repaid in the next three years, we‘ll take that…We are absolute value investors. We take our role as guardians of our clients’ capital quite seriously. If we felt the need to be fully invested at all times, then we would have to accept more risk than I think we need to.”

Romick’s performance benchmark is absolute value driven, not to outperform the “market”. I wonder, what is a adequate figure for “long term, equity-like returns?” Is this figure, then, the hurdle rate that determines whether or not an investment is made?

 

Volatility

“Fortunately, people are emotional and they make visceral decisions. Such decisions end up manifesting themselves in volatility, where things are oversold and overbought.”

Emotions and investor psychology causes volatility (Howard Marks would agree with this), which is a blessing to the patient, rational investor who can take advantage when “things are oversold or overbought.”

 

Foreign Exchange

“The government is doing its best to destroy the value of the US dollar. We have made efforts to de-dollarize our portfolio, taking advantage of other parts of the world that have better growth opportunities than the US with more exposure to currencies other than our own.”

 

Inflation

“We are seeking those companies that are more protected should inflation be more than expected in the future…We are looking for companies where we feel the pricing power would offset the potential rise in input costs. That leads us to a whole universe of companies, while keeping us away from others.”

Wisdom from Steve Romick: Part 2

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Continuation of content extracted from an interview with Steve Romick of First Pacific Advisors (Newsletter Fall 2010) published by Columbia Business School. Please see Part 1 for more details on this series.  

Capital Preservation, Conservatism

“Most of our financial exposure is on the debt side. We were able to buy loans with very strong collateral, which we thought we understood reasonably well, and we stress tested the portfolios to determine what our asset coverage would be in a worst case scenario. We ended up buying things like Ford Credit of Europe, CIT, American General Finance, and International Lease Finance. We discounted the underlying assets tremendously, and in every case we didn‘t think we could lose money so we just kept buying.”

“The biggest lesson I ever learned from Bob is to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.”

Underwriting to an extremely conservative, worst case scenario helps minimize loss while increasingly likelihood of upside. This is similar to advice given by Seth Klarman in a previous interview with Jason Zweig.

 

Exposure, Intrinsic Value

“A lot of that has been culled back. The yield on our debt book was 23% last year and now it‘s less than 8%.”

The relationship between exposure and intrinsic value has been something we’ve previous discussed, nevertheless it remains an intriguingly difficult topic. Even Buffett ruminated over this in 1958 without providing a clear answer to what he would do.

For example:

Day 1 Asset 1 purchase for $100 Asset 1 is sized at 10% of total portfolio NAV Expected Upside is $200 (+100% from Day 1 price) Expected Downside is $80 (-20% from Day 1 price) Everything else in the portfolio is held as Cash which returns 0%

Day 2 Asset 1’s price increases to $175 Asset 1 is now worth 16.2% of total portfolio NAV (remember, everything else is held as Cash) Expected Upside is now +14.2% ($175 vs. $200) Expected Downside is now -54.2% ($175 vs. $80)

What would you do?

Not only has the risk/reward on Asset 1 changed (+14.2% to -54.2% on Day 2 vs. +100% to -20% on Day 1), it is now also worth a larger percentage of portfolio NAV (16.2% on Day 2 vs. 10.0% on Day 1)

Do you trim the exposure despite the price of Asset 1 not having reached its full expected intrinsic value of $200?

Steve Romick’s words seem to imply that he trimmed his exposure as the positions increased in value.

 

Risk, Hedging

“You can protect against certain types of risk, not just by hedging your portfolio, but by choosing to buy certain types of companies versus others.”

Practice risk “prevention” by choosing not to buy certain exposures, versus neutralizing risks that have already leaked into the portfolio via hedges (which require additional attention, not to mention option premium).

Wisdom from Steve Romick: Part 1

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The content below is extracted from an interview with Steve Romick of First Pacific Advisors (Newsletter Fall 2010) published by Columbia Business School. Be sure to browse the other quarterly newsletters containing interviews with well-known investors. Many thanks to my friend Janice Davies of Karlin Asset Management for tipping PM Jar on this useful link. For more information on Steve Romick and FPA's investment philosophy, explore the FPA website – there’s a wealth of information from old letters, speech transcripts, etc.

 

Creativity

“I felt that most mutual funds were style box constrained, and didn't take advantage of a deep toolbox…I didn't think there were a lot of public funds out there that invested in such diverse asset classes, but felt that such a vehicle made sense for people. For years, I had to fight the idea that I was a style box manager.”

We’ve previously discussed how the investment management business is no different from a business that makes widgets. It is important to consider one’s competitive advantage vs. the competition, which in Romick’s case is differentiation through creativity of investment mandate.

Romick’s Crescent Fund has the ability implement a variety of investment strategies – such as buying residential whole loans, investing with a community bank private fund, shorting securities, etc. – in a go anywhere opportunistic approach. His mutual fund peers, with their mandate restrictions, are usually not allowed to take advantage of this “deep toolbox.”

Although this freedom to roam mandate may seem like common sense (and more frequently observed with hedge funds), it is still a rarity in today’s institutional mutual fund world, let alone back in the early 1990s.

 

Time Management

“I realized that you can’t wear all the hats well, and I was wearing too many hats. I wanted to just focus on investing. I wanted someone to insulate me from the marketing and back office. It just took too much time away from the portfolio.”

On why he joined FPA after running his own money management firm for a few years. Romick was wise in recognizing his strength as an investor and potential weakness (or perhaps just low interest level) in dealing with marketing and back office operations.

I have often told people that the investment management business is a 3-legged-stool with each leg representing:

  1. Investing
  2. Operations
  3. Marketing / Client Management

In my previous position at a large single family office with substantial external manager allocations, I had the benefit of meeting many bright investors who left existing employers to launch their own funds. The common denominator for success was surprisingly not investment acumen (of course that helps), it was thoughtful consideration of all three legs of the stool.

With a finite 24 hours in a day, any extra time spent on operations or marketing, equates to less time spent on investing. Few people manage to successfully juggle all three roles. For those who cannot, or prefer not to juggle, the key is to not underestimate the importance of operations and marketing when building an investment management business, and seek help / external expertise when necessary, as Romick did.

 

Psychology

“Honestly, people shouldn't have given me money then [when he started his own money management firm in 1990]. With what I know now, and what I thought I knew then, it’s such a vast difference. People took a chance on me…I’m better now than I was then. I think that in the money management business, knowledge is cumulative, or rather should be cumulative rather than repetitive, and one should improve the longer one is in the business. I’m much more comfortable wearing the skin of an investor than I was back then. I guess I was too ignorant to realize that when I was younger.”

G&D: In your first letter in 1993, you wrote that you often found niche companies with excellent track records that Wall Street has yet to discover. Is it worth your time looking for these opportunities now that you have $4 billion under management?                

SR: I think that I was naïve. What is really undiscovered? I think it's morphed from undiscovered to unloved or misunderstood. There aren’t that many undiscovered names out there.”

Other well-known investors have discussed the importance of awareness in the past. Unfortunately, self-awareness is difficult to learn. An effort can be made, but perhaps it merely leads us to think that we are self-aware. Often times, only the benefit of time and experience can reveal to us the mistakes/naiveté of our past/youth.